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  • Dec 31st, 2005
  • Comments Off on Base metals end 2005 with hefty gains
Industrial metals prices finished the year with big gains that surpassed analyst forecasts as supply constraints lured investors into commodities. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures finished Friday's open outcry session 39.5 percent higher than the last trading day of 2004 at $4,395 a tonne, while aluminium gained 16 percent to $2,276.

Zinc was the strongest performer, ending at $1,905 a tonne versus $1,246 on December 31, 2004 - a 53 percent gain. It hit $1,925, a 16-3/4-year peak, earlier on Friday.

Nickel and tin were the only two metals to post losses, ending down nine and 17 percent respectively on the year as warehouse inventories ballooned.

Prices for many commodities have shot to levels unseen in several decades, if not record highs in 2005, as this relatively forgotten asset class attracted new inflows of fund money.

"The signs are that more and more funds of all types will be adding a new or increased stake in commodities to their portfolios," LME trader Triland Metals said.

A major factor driving industrial metals to new peaks has been robust consumption from Asia, specifically China, whose offtake now accounts for nearly a quarter of world demand.

"The fantastic performance of copper this year cannot have been predicted by anyone a year ago. A high over $4,500 seemed beyond the wildest imaginings," Triland said.

Cash copper prices peaked at a record $4,711 on December 9 as the market spiralled higher on talk of a large short position. The metal averaged $3,682 in 2005, well above the average forecast in a July update to a Reuters poll of $3,166.

Critically low stocks were a key factor in copper in 2005, although paradoxically inventories held in LME warehouses finished the year over 80 percent higher at 89,575 tonnes, having dropped to a 31-year low of 25,525 in July.

The average aluminium cash price was $1,900, versus the July poll average of $1,806 and, with zinc, was again touted as a top pick for 2006.

Aluminium futures scored 17-year highs in late-December at $2,290. Further supply constraints were expected in 2006, although analysts remain wary of hidden stocks resurfacing.

Aluminium and zinc were the only metals to finish the year with stocks lower than at end-December 2004. Aluminium stocks fell just over seven percent to 644,850 tonnes, while zinc slid over 37 percent to 394,125 tonnes.

Nickel stocks were up some 70 pct by the end of the year at 35,742 tonnes, the highest since September 2003, as demand for the metal slowed.

Tin inventories more than doubled to 16,725 tonnes, reflecting over-supply from small operations in major producer Indonesia, which resulted in the price missing out on the boom, industry consultants CRU International said.

Lead was carried higher by strength in zinc, hitting contract highs in December.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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